Since becoming a president, US President Donald Trump declared Al-Quds the capital of ‘Israel’ instead of Tel Aviv, and moved the US Embassy from Tel Aviv to Al-Quds which triggered the Palestinians against the Israeli occupation. To the Palestinians, Al-Quds is the center of the conflict with the occupation.

Trump, then, announced his Plan for peace in the Middle East in the beginning of 2020, and it consisted of 80 pages addressing the annexation plan of several lands which are originally under the control of the Palestinian Authority. This made Mahmoud Abbas, President of the PA, announce his denunciation of all agreements with the occupation in a press conference.

Insight of the Situation

Netanyahu had announced the implementation date of the American-Israeli annexation plan to be the beginning of July this year. It will include all settlements surrounding occupied Al-Quds, known as territory E1; the Jordan Valley, which is considered the first line of defense from the Jordanian side; and all territories known in Oslo Accords as Area C. 

Despite Netanyahu’s constant efforts to execute the annexation plan, it remains a difficult step as it would lead to multiple scenarios, which we will address later in the report. Understanding the risks, Benny Gantz, PM succeeding Netanyahu, and Aviv Kochavi, Chief of General Staff of the Israeli Defense Forces, reinforced the troops and deployed them in all areas in order to prepare for any confrontations between the Palestinians and the occupation.

Netanyahu has been exerting a lot of efforts to ensure the execution of the plan before the coming US elections in November. Netanyahu is concerned about Trump’s loss and the Democrats’ winning since the latter believe in the two-state solution, and refuse the annexation plan without a just and clear agreement between the occupation and the PA. 

In addition, the EU is against the annexation plan and so is the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, which warned of withdrawing from any peace treaties with Israel since 1997. Still, Netanyahu is determined to execute the annexation.

What was unpredicted to both Netanyahu and Trump is the current popular and violent demonstrations in the US, which were described as domestic terrorism inside the US by Trump himself. This would probably lead to the delay in the execution of the annexation plan, which is very concerning to Netanyahu.

Possible Scenarios

The annexation plan is considered important to Netanyahu and Trump as it would make a huge difference and addition to their political resume. The possible scenarios for the annexation are as follows:

• Netanyahu postpones the execution of the annexation because of ongoing demonstrations in the US and his incapability of implementing it without US protection.
• Netanyahu assumes full responsibility should the US be busy with its problems, and implement the annexation with force through reinforcing its troops and preventing an intifada from erupting. He would not, however, succeed as there will be a third Palestinian intifada that would be difficult to contain. The PA would attempt to contain it in secret, though. 
• Jordan’s denunciation of its peace treaty with the occupation. The current diplomatic ties between the entity and Jordan are tense, which is very concerning to the occupation as operations might be carried out from Jordan. In addition, the Palestinian movements, Hamas in the lead, would activate their sleeper cells in the West Bank, with a containable escalation in Gaza without heading to wide-range military operation. At the end, Netanyahu would be fighting at three fronts: Jordan, Gaza and the West Bank.

It is most likely that the second and third scenarios would realize at 50% each, but it would be ‘the Israeli decision’ that would lead the way.