Benjamin Netanyahu, Zionist PM, announced the date of the annexation to be July 1^st, 2020. According to the plan, 30% of the West Bank will be annexed which would eliminate the possibility of establishing a Palestinian state (the two-state solution).

Nevertheless, the main obstacle facing the annexation plan is the disapproval of Netanyahu’s partner party. Gantz’ party is expecting a strong reaction on the Palestinians’ part, one that the Israeli army cannot afford at this time.

Insight of the Situation

Kahol Lavan is considered essential to the Israeli government since Benny Gantz will serve as PM in the second term. The Party’s approval, thus, is very important since it has the power to either allow or prevent the implementation from happening.  Gantz’ disapproval is also affecting the US Administration decision as it may reconsider its support. This could lead to Netanyahu dissolving the government and calling for a fourth election, which would create a political crisis. 

Other factors include the EU’s threats of imposing sanctions and the PA’s position. The PA has threatened to end all agreements with the occupation, but this remains dependent on how serious those threats are. 

Despite the abovementioned challenges, the most concerning reaction is that of the Palestinian factions, Hamas and Jihad mostly. Hamas has threatened to respond to the annexation after a statement by Dr. Khalil Al-Hayya saying that his Movement is ready to act immediately.

As for Hamas, the main factor stopping it from taking action is the absence of an international cover that would defend it and the Gaza Strip.

Possible Scenarios

Following are the three possible scenarios for the annexation:

• Israel would implement the plan partially, which would drag the Palestinian factions, Jihad Movement in the lead, for an escalation to deter the occupation. In addition, Hamas would reactivate the Great March of Return activities, and rehabilitate Al-Awda Street. This street was originally paved by Al-Qassam after 2014 attack shifting its direction towards the fence. Such move would lead to the emergence of an international stance supporting the Gaza Strip if Palestinians are martyred or wounded. 
• The Islamic Jihad Movement would initiate an escalation without Hamas. However, in such case Hamas would have to intervene militarily especially if a massacre is executed or a military facility is destroyed.  As a result, the military and political leadership of both parties would make a joint decision to respond. Still, the occupation does not want to carry out a wide-range military operation inside the Gaza Strip because of the existing Coronavirus issue. If the settlers go to the shelters, the number of infections would increase.
• A third Palestinian Intifada would erupt in the West Bank as a reaction to the annexation, but the PA would prevent it.

Finally, all scenarios are possible to happen at different rates. However, the first scenario is most likely to happen, and could be accompanied by scenario number 2.