Dr. Hatem Abu Zaida
For the first time in a serious manner, current and former political and military officials have warned of
the potential for an internal explosion within the Israeli entity, possibly resembling a civil war. This comes amid deepening polarization and a growing horizontal divide at various levels—particularly between the ultra-Orthodox Haredi bloc (including the eastern Shas party and the western United Torah Judaism party), which constitutes around 17% of the population, and the majority bloc composed of liberals, seculars, and religious nationalists allied with Netanyahu.

At the root of this dispute lies a long-standing issue: the conscription of Haredim into the Israeli army. Since the establishment of the entity, the Haredim have refused to serve in the army, following an agreement by the first Israeli Prime Minister David Ben-Gurion to exempt them from military service. At that time, the Haredim made up only 2% of the new immigrants, and Ben-Gurion needed their support for the founding of the state, despite their skepticism and theological opposition to its establishment.

But why has this issue exploded at this particular time?
    1.    The severe shortage of manpower in the Israeli army due to injuries and the exhaustion of tens of thousands of soldiers during the genocide war on Gaza.
    2.    The insistence of the Haredim that the Knesset pass a clear and permanent law exempting them from military service, after previously receiving renewable six-month exemptions.
    3.    A 2015 Supreme Court ruling mandated the conscription of draft-age Haredim, a decision reaffirmed in 2025, with the government’s legal advisor now pushing for its implementation.
    4.    Rising public resentment toward the Haredim in Israeli society, especially after the heavy losses suffered by the army during the genocide war. Many perceive that secular Israelis are sacrificing their lives, while the Haredim—who do not serve—live off state benefits under the pretext of dedicating themselves to Torah study “to avert God’s wrath” and ensure “the survival and prosperity of the state.”

A growing societal rift is now widening day by day, between the right-wing, religious-nationalist, and Haredi blocs that make up the ruling coalition, and the rest of Israeli society represented by the opposition. This divide is exacerbated by Netanyahu’s efforts to orchestrate a soft coup within state institutions—deepening right-wing influence across security, judicial, and political bodies and placing loyalists in sensitive positions. This would allow the right to steer public policy to its advantage amid internal right-wing debates over what they see as leftist and liberal dominance of decision-making centers, commonly referred to as the “deep state.”

These moves also align with Netanyahu’s desperate attempts to shield himself from corruption trials and deflect blame for what is internally termed the “October 7th disaster.” In essence, Netanyahu and his partners in the ruling coalition are seen by their opponents as attempting to swallow the state whole.

Ultimately, the state of polarization in Israeli society—especially with the expanding dominance of the right-wing—may reach its peak this year or in the coming few years, potentially paving the way for some form of internal conflict. This could escalate into civil war, result in a profound loss of trust in state institutions, and transform the Israeli entity into an unstable and unsafe environment for a significant segment of its own population.