With the Israeli military’s first strike deep into Iranian territory, a noticeable shift has occurred: the pace of aerial bombardment on the Gaza Strip has significantly declined and, in some areas, has halted entirely. The number of martyrs and injuries has dropped by nearly 50%, though it’s important to note that most of the recent casualties were near distribution points for the limited American aid entering Gaza.

This shift, however, does not signal the end of the war on Gaza. Rather, it reflects a strategic redirection: Israel’s entire air force — including drones, intelligence units, aerial surveillance, and cyber espionage — is now focused on the Iranian front, and to a lesser extent, on Yemen and Iraq. This approach aligns with Israel’s broader strategy since October 7, 2023 — to engage each front individually: first Gaza, then Lebanon, and now Iran.

Given this context, several potential scenarios may unfold in Gaza over the coming days or weeks:

Scenario One
    1.    The continuation of the suffocating blockade and the maintenance — or even worsening — of famine conditions.
    2.    Limited airstrikes, primarily carried out by drones, and artillery shelling targeting new frontlines in central and eastern Khan Younis, east of Salah al-Din Street, and in areas of Jabalia and Beit Lahia in the north of the Strip.
    3.    A static ground presence, with Israeli forces remaining in their current positions and refraining from further incursions or maneuvers deep into the Strip.

Scenario Two
This involves the Israeli government agreeing to a temporary ceasefire and reaching a partial deal — likely a prisoner exchange or similar arrangement — with the aim of neutralizing the Gaza front in order to concentrate fully on the Iranian one.

Despite the heightened regional military escalation following the assault on Iran, plans for mass displacement — potentially forcing out 50% of Gaza’s population — remain active. This scenario assumes that the war on Iran will conclude within two weeks or slightly longer, with the objective of compelling Iran to comply with U.S. demands, delaying its nuclear program for years, and significantly weakening its ballistic missile and drone capabilities.

Scenario Three
An uncontrollable escalation of the war, should U.S. forces directly participate in strikes on Iran, prompting Iran to retaliate against American bases in the Gulf. This could trigger the involvement of Hezbollah, the Houthis (Ansar Allah), and Iraqi factions in the conflict.

Such a development would likely destabilize — or even bring down — regional Arab regimes that currently act as protectors of Israel’s borders, creating an existential threat to Israeli security.

Each of these scenarios carries grave consequences for Gaza. Whether through continued siege and starvation, temporary sidelining in a broader conflict, or as