Friday, November 27th was a difficult day for Iran as Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, one of its scientists working on the nuclear file, was assassinated. The assassination was not the only painful incident; the fact that a major security breach happened was as painful. Immediately, Iran accused the Israeli Mossad of carrying out the operation since it would benefit ‘Israel’ the most, and promised to respond. How will Iran respond? And who will do it?
The Israeli occupation’s war on Iran escalated during Trump’s term. The occupation assassinated several military leaders including Qasem Soleimani and Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis; attacked Iranian locations in Syria with airstrikes, carried out e-war on Iran’s facilities, and assassinated scientists such as Fakhrizadeh. It had the US blessings and sanctions on Iran all along.
It is clear that the situation will escalate until Trump’s term ends. A tough response to the assassination means expanding the confrontation, which Iran understands well and does not want to give Trump an excuse for. Therefore, it tries to wait until the new president takes over hoping his policy would be less violent towards it.
Still, Iran promised to respond. If it does not do it, it will lose its credibility and the occupation will be encouraged to execute more assassinations.
Therefore, the response will not provoke the Israeli occupation and the USA since the target is the occupation – but it will neither be important nor strategic. This is also connected to Iran’s weakness in technology unlike the Israeli occupation.
Another complicated matter is who will be the one to respond. Hamas will not initiate an escalation and will not allow one to happen considering its difficult circumstances. Hezbollah’s response in north Palestine will cause Lebanon to enter a confrontation with the occupation while the country is preoccupied with several issues. Could the response occur outside occupied Palestine? Could Israelis or Israeli interests be targeted?
The Israeli estimates expect an Iranian response, but they do not know who will be the one to execute it. We cannot be sure either. However, if it happens, it will not lead to a bigger confrontation with the Israeli occupation nor with the USA – and it is unlikely to happen from the Gaza Strip.