The situation between the Lebanese party ‘Hezbollah’ and the Israeli occupation has escalated after the latter’s shelling of several military posts that belong to the party in Syria. This was not the first time the occupation targets the infrastructure of Hezbollah in Syria since the beginning of the Syrian revolution in 2011.

Hassan Nasrallah, the Secretary General of Hezbollah, warned against any assassination of the party’s members, threatening to respond violently should that happen. Nevertheless, the occupation’s warplanes recently raided a location for Hezbollah in Syria killing Ali Mohsen, an eminent leader in the party.

Insight of the Situation

When Nasrallah threatened to respond violently in case of assassinations, he was aiming at restoring the trust of his soldiers should another leader die. He, instead, works on finding strategic plans that could deeply harm the Israeli occupation if any assassination operation is carried out inside the Lebanese territories. Such operation would break his party apart since it would expose the weakness of the security measures of the party.

This remains unlikely to happen because Nasrallah said after the 2006 aggression, “Had I known this would happen in the southern area, I would not have done this”; indicating the fatigue the battle resulted in and the party’s lack of ammunition. It also indicates that Nasrallah is avoiding a new escalation with the Israeli occupation.

A few days ago, the occupation forces announced thwarting an infiltration operation that was attempted by Hezbollah’s members. The forces heavily fired at the members and managed to stop the operation. Hezbollah remained silent until it responded, “There was not any operation. The Israeli occupation did what it did because of its fears and concerns”.

However, looking into the situation, perhaps Hezbollah did intend to hit the occupation behind its lines and return to its base. The party recently dug a two-meter wall in three different areas to show the occupation that their eyes are open to any new development so to prevent military confrontations.

It is also expected that the soldiers were alarmed and started shooting without real targets like what happens sometimes with the Gaza Strip, but the first scenario remains more likely to describe what had happened.

Expected Scenarios

1. Hezbollah strongly responds to the occupation forces at the northern borders of occupied Palestine hence triggering an escalation. Netanyahu would exploit such escalation and escape the coming trial as he believes in the importance and danger of the northern front.
2. The two parties would settle the situation behind the scene and Hezbollah would slightly respond to the occupation; a response that would not lead to a vast military operation especially considering the difficult economic situation from which Lebanon suffers.

The second scenario is more likely to happen because of the current conditions of the Israeli entity and Hezbollah.