The 'Israeli' MT Mercer Street oil tanker was attacked last week in the waters of the Gulf of Oman by a drone. The ship was sailing from Tanzania to the Emirati Port of Fujairah. Two crew members died in the attack: One was British and the other Romanian. The targeted oil tanker was found to be run by Zodiac Maritime and registered as a Japanese ship with Liberia's flag on.

Immediately after, Iran was accused of being responsible for the attack, but Iran did not adopt the operation publicly. It indirectly and unofficially announced that targeting the ship was in response to the occupation's recent targeting of Al-Dab'a airport in Syria according to Iran's Al-Alam TV Channel. Saeed Khatibzadeh, Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson, said that the claims of Iran's involvement in the attack were baseless.

At the same time, both Britain and the USA accused Iran of being responsible for the attack despite the latter's denial, and openly declared studying the proper method of response to the attack. Dominic Raab, Secretary of State for Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Affairs of the United Kingdom, said that Iran's attack on the ship violates the international law. Britain perceives itself as a party in the crisis because the 'Israeli' company operating the ship is based in London, and the captain who died in the attack was British.

Antony Blinken, US Secretary of State, confirmed his country's belief that Iran was responsible for the attack, and that the USA is exploring, with its allies, a proper response to the Iranian operation. The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs warned that Iran would not hesitate to defend its national interests and would respond immediately and fiercely to any attempted risks.

 

As for the occupation, its government also accused Iran and threatened to avenge and punish Iran for what it has done, and shut down all its military activities against the Israeli ships sailing in the Gulf. PM Naftali Bennett said his entity had 'evidence' and Benny Gantz called for immediate action against Iran.

Insight of the Situation

• Cyber operations against ships and the drones’ attacks in the Gulf that Iran was accused of doing took place at a very sensitive time as Ebrahim Raisi  became Iran's new president and a nuclear deal is under development.  
• For the fifth time, one of the occupation's ships was attacked. Although attacking the ships is not a new practice, having deaths in the operation is.
• The occupation is eager to respond not only to retrieve its shaky deterrence policy but also to demonize Iran, and mobilize universal opinion against it.
• Through its diplomatic activities, the occupation seeks to enrage the superpowers and the world public opinion by internationalizing the issue as a threat to the sea trade movement and obtaining a Secretary Council decision that condemns Iran, punishes it and lowers its demands in the nuclear negotiations.
• The occupation bases its international mobilization work on its ally, the USA, and Britain and Romania whose citizens died in the attack.
• The recent naval operations are a new strategic challenge to the occupation at a time when Naftali Bennett is the new Prime Minister, the political conditions are unstable, and the community is broken. As a result, the occupation is forced to make new policies to handle such challenges.

 

 

Possible Scenarios:

1. The occupation coordinates with the USA and Britain to reach a proper political and military response in order to deter Iran without large-scale engagement. The occupation and the superpowers want to punish Iran but without initiating new crises in the Middle East. The fragile political and social condition in the occupation's entity and Iran's ability to influence the USA's allies in the Gulf and world trade would force the USA to limit the response operation to avoid large-scale confrontation.
2. The powers impose penalties, restrictions and siege on Iran to force it to stop its naval activities. The fact that the USA does not want to distract itself and political agenda, and wants to focus on major issues such as reviewing relations with China, withdrawing from Afghanistan and fighting the Coronavirus support this scenario.

Generally, all scenarios are possible, but the first scenario is more likely to happen. It is expected that the occupation and its allies use their force and combine political and military work to respond to the attack especially that the occupation has received international support after the attack.