The Egyptian diplomatic efforts succeeded to reach a calm agreement between the Palestinian resistance factions and the Israeli occupation. The ceasefire comes after three days of a ferocious fight that witnessed a significant increase in the size of Israeli crimes against civilians. The operation resulted in the martyrdom of 45 Palestinians, among which were 15 children and four ladies, and in the injury of about 360 others. In addition, the attacks caused damage to more than 1,500 dwelling units, 18 of which were completely demolished while the remaining were damaged at varying degrees.

The ceasefire agreement was reached under several conditions by the resistance, including Egyptian commitment to follow up with the files of the Palestinian captives on hunger strike, mainly Khalil Awawda, and to work on the release of the Islamic Jihad leader in the West Bank, Bassam As-Sa’di. Although the occupation continuously stalls in its commitment to the resistance conditions, it expressed its will to continue the talks with the Egyptians regarding the continuous efforts to fulfill the ceasefire.

Internationally, the American Administration welcomed the Egyptian efforts to achieve calm, while President Biden explicitly expressed his solidarity with the occupation and his support to the iron dome project. The international interaction was extremely deficient, as the international community turned a blind eye to the occupation crimes. On the ground, a UN delegation arrived at the Gaza Strip this morning to follow up with the implementation of the ceasefire and the evaluation of the damage caused by the Israeli aggression. 

Insight of the Situation
•    Reaching a final wording of the calm between the resistance and the occupation is a reasonable outcome of the limited clashing witnessed in the past three days. 
•    Despite its losses, the resistance has succeeded to send a message that the Palestinian causes are united among the different components of the Palestinian people.
•    The occupation realizes that the Palestinian resistance did not act in full strength, and that the strategic goals of the resistance require not entering a large-scale confrontation at this time of preparation and equipment. 

Evaluation of the Situation: based on the abovementioned analysis, the expected scenarios are as follows: 
1.    Efforts are made to contain the aftermath of the recent aggression, effect the calm, and supervise the implementation of the agreement terms by both the resistance and the occupation. This scenario is supported by the tendency of both sides to end this fight round as soon as possible and prepare for upcoming strategic confrontations. 

2.    Efforts go to no avail, as the occupation stalls and does not commit to the terms of the calm agreement, thus opening the way for the resumption of the military operation between the resistance and the occupation. This scenario is supported by the occupation stalling to commit to the agreement. 

In general, all scenarios are possible, but the first is more likely, amid the tendency of both the resistance and the occupation to effectuate the calm and amid the continued Egyptian and regional efforts in this regard.