Updates on the Israeli Electoral Scene

Aug 17, 2022 11:42 am

Situation Report by PALM Strategic
The Israeli political arena witnessed a vital series of developments since the announcement of the "Knesset Dissolution" last June. Friction and competitiveness between the political parties of the Israeli occupation spearheaded the scene again.

The most prominent event lately was the rapid collapse of the Yamina Party which led the former Israeli government presided by PM Naftali Bennett. Bennett's withdrawal from the scene and handing it over to his partner Ayletet Shaked constituted a state of sharp reversal, the most important of which is the withdrawal of many leaders such as Matan Kahana who moved to Gantz' and Sa'ar coalition, in addition to the party's inability to exceed the crucial percentage according to polls. In return, Itmar Ben Gvir reported that he will join the upcoming elections in a new party independently from the Religious Zionism, led by Bezalel Smotrich.

Gadi Eizenkot, Former Chief of General Staff, announced that he would join the current coalition between Gideon Sa'ar and Benny Gantz under the name of the "national camp." Thus, Eizenkot becomes the 14th Chief of the General Staff that moves from militarism to political life, and the one whose attitude towards politics until this moment does not cause a big change in the electoral balances. 

Concerning the Right-wing camp, the Likud party finished its internal preparations by announcing its list that will go through the upcoming elections, which witnessed the deportation of Netanyahu's opponents, mainly Ze'ev Elkin and Yuli Edelstein, from the front. Yet, Netanyahu exerts serious efforts to restore consensus between the leaders of the leaders of the Religious Zionism Party Smotrich and Ben Gvir to reunite in a list. 

Analysis and Insight of the Scene:    
• The Israeli electoral scene still attempts to renew its presence from a while to another as a result of the political conflict lived by the Israeli occupation since 2018, without reaching a state of consensus that would allow the formational of a powerful, independent government. 
• The Israeli electoral system is unique in terms of the speed of formation and dissolution of the parties and their ability to rise and collapse rapidly without any consideration to the popular basis, date and size as well ass the irrational state in building and dismantling the parities and coalitions.
• The participation of Gadi Eizenkot, Former Chief of the General Staff, in the political life cannot be regarded as a precedent in the Israeli politics, as a third of the General Staff Chiefs preceded him in this regard over the history. Also, some of them led the government presidency like Issac Rabin and Ehud Barak, and six of them presided the position of the Minister of Defense in the Israeli government. 
• The Left-wing and Middle-wing parties witness a state of activity to empower their force and support their lists to confront the Right-wing and Likud. 

Possible Scenarios: based on the above-mentioned analysis and insight of the scene, the following is expected:
1. The difference in electoral balances and sizes would continue to stagnant in a way that increases the gap in the Israeli political scene. This scenario is supported by the inability of any of the two camps to gain the majority in the 120th Knesset seats, and the closeness of each camp to the edge without reaching it, along with the Mutual Arab List's maintain of its 6 seats.
2. One of the two camps might achieve a breakthrough in the understandings with one of the parties of the other camp or the number of its members, and gain the majority of seats enabling it to form the government. Even though this scenario is weak, the Right-wing party, led by Netanyahu, is expected to be achieved more that the Middle-Left camp in case the conditions were suitable.

In general, all scenarios all present and possible with preference for the first scenario, which is highly expected amid the current polls' results and the attraction state based on the Israeli electoral scene.