Israeli opinion polls showed notable rise in the Right parties’ control over seats in the Knesset. The Right bloc received 67 seats out of 120, which is significant to the two blocs. Headed by Naftali Bennett, the Right coalition advanced in the polls and came second after the Likud.

Channel 12, Professor Fox, and Direct Polls Company conducted opinion polls and found that Yamina Alliance would receive 19-22 seats should elections be held soon.

Previous polls had shown a best-case-scenario of 15 seats, with the Likud slightly retreating to 31 seats. According to Direct Polls, Yamina’s new seats come at the expense of Yesh Atid Party headed by Yair Lapid.

Yamina, then, comes after the Likud and surpasses Yesh Atid (19 seats). The Joint List’s results remain stable (15 seats) as Lieberman maintains 8 seats. Kahol Lavan would receive 11 seats only.  Other Labor parties, Meretz, the Jewish Home, Gesher, and Derekh Erets would not surpass the minimum percentage required for entering the elections.  

In a poll on who is qualified to run as prime minister, Bennet (28%) came second after Netanyahu (37%); Gantz received 18% and Yair Lapid 16%.

Analysis

• Polls show that the Israeli community is inclining towards the Right, which has an extremist ideology regarding the Palestinians.
• These results indicate a rise in Bennett’s popularity among the rightists, which makes him a possible replacement  of Netanyahu in leading the Right.
• The change in Bennett’s position comes at the same time of retreat in Netanyahu’s; who is charged with corruption, failure to manage the Coronavirus crisis, and inability to bring security or stop resistance in Gaza.
• These results are the total sum of efforts exerted in developing Bennett’s performance, which no longer focused on the settlers and pro-religious Zionism. Instead, his discourse expanded to include the youth, the middle class and the centrists.

Expected Scenarios

1. If a new election takes place, the Right bloc wins without the need for coalition or agreement with the Leftists.
2. Bennett’s popularity continues to increase and Yamina becomes a strong competitor over the leadership of the Rightists and formation of the coming Israeli government; and Netanyahu would be alienated for he has already started losing his power and popularity.
3. Netanyahu restores his popularity and overcomes his legal issues. He continues to head the Right bloc and form a rightist government under his presidency. This would include Bennett but with wider jurisdiction.

It is expected that the Right bloc manages to form a government without the need for coalitions. The government would be headed by Netanyahu whose charges were not decided on. In addition, Naftali Bennett would join the government with bigger jurisdiction and bigger ministerial share.