Start of 25th Israeli Knesset Elections

Nov 03, 2022 07:32 pm

Ysterday, November 1, 2022, the 25th Knesset elections -the 5th in 4 years- started in the Israeli occupation entity. 40 Israeli party lists, ranging from the extreme Far Right to the secular Far Left are competing for 120 parliamentarian seats, with the participation of 3 Arab lists representing the Palestinian citizens in the 1948 Occupied Lands.

The electoral process has witnessed a state of mobilization, especially in the in the Israeli right camp, led by the Likud Party -headed by Netanyahu- and the Religious Zionism -headed by Bezalel Smotrich and Itmar Ben Gvir, in an attempt to return governing of the Right-wing to the occupation entity, after its failure to gain a majority and the control of the leadership of the Left and Central parties on the political scene for more than a year and a half. This mobilization can be translated through the upsurge of the voting rate, which reached 71.3% (the higher rate since 2015).

With the closure of the voting stations, the initial results published by Israeli media sources did not constitute any exceptional surprise. The lucks and results of the competing parties and the opinion polls conducted before elections were almost close; yet, there were some slight changes that contributed to resolving the Right camp -led by Netanyahu. Following are the average estimated results:

Seats

Party 

Seats

Party 

Seats

Party

14

Religious Zionism

 

24

Yesh Atid

 

31

Likud

7

Yahudat Hatorah

10

Shas

 

12

National Camp

4

Meretz

5

Labor Party

4

Israel Baituna

 

 

 

4

Arab Front for Change

5

United Arab List

Reading and Analysis:
⦁ The initial results of the Israeli Knesset elections showed a slight development in the lucks of the Right camp parties over the parties of Change camp. Israel Baituna party lost 3 parliamentarian seats in favor of Shas and Zionist Religious parties, helping the Right wing obtain 62 seats. 
⦁ The Yamina parties and the Arab party failed to reach the 3.25% threshold, calculated on the Change camp, which contributed to the further bleeding of the voting balance of the camp.
⦁ Preliminary results showed the Arab Party's proximity to reaching the threshold by almost 3.1%. Hence, its victory might constitute a shocking surprise, brining back scales to indecisiveness.

pected Scenarios: based on the abovementioned analysis and reading of the scene, following is the expected: 
1. Netanyahu's right-wing camp might win a majority of more than 60 seats and be able to form a government whose composition depends on far-right religious parties. This scenario is supported by the appearance of the initial results of elections, spearheaded by the Right camp so far. 
2.Netanyahu might build a coalition of the Right-wing camp with a Change camp party, and building a broad  government. What supports this scenario is Netanyahu's improved ability to resolve election results according to preliminary readings, which could lead his opponents to surrender and go to partnership with him.
3. The Arab party might be able to reach the threshold with the official final results of the elections, which could fail the right-wing parties' ability to secure the majority needed to form the Government and the number of right-wing seats dropped to 60, thereby going to a sixth election.

Generally, it is evident that all options are open. Yet, the 1st scenario is preferable in light of the initial results that almost indicate Netanyahu's ability to establish a government and the Arab Party's inability to pass the threshold.