Israeli American Military Maneuvers: Goals and Timing

Dec 01, 2022 01:49 pm

Israeli press sources announced early this week that a joint Israeli Air Force military maneuver with the United States Air Force would begin on Tuesday morning, November 29, and end on Thursday of the same week, within a wide geographical range stretching over the occupied Palestinian territory and over the Mediterranean, in a maneuver that is the largest in several years.

This maneuver includes intensive trainings on long-distance flight in a way simulating a military operation against Iran, and on flight refueling for both armies by making use of the geographical space that Mediterranean's waters provide.

These exercises come at a time when the Israeli Knesset elections ended with a clear superiority for right-wing parties, and the clear directions of Benjamin Netanyahu to form a right-wing government that the religious extremist parties participate in; such as the Coalition of Religious Zionism. This comes in parallel with the growing opposition of both Republicans and Democrats in the United States to revive the nuclear deal again, especially after the recent announcement that the negotiations had failed for nearly a year and a half. The gap between the United States and Iran is growing especially after the latter's supply of drones to Russia in its war against Ukraine.

Occupation confirms many times to do a military operation against Iran and its nuclear program. The Defense Minister, Benny Gantz, said that his army has the ability and the plans to perform this operation, but with lots of cautious. 

Reading and Analysis of the Situation:
• The military maneuvers between the US and occupation represent the desire to send warning massages to Iran especially after the expansion of the gap between Iran and the US on the background of the Ukraine-Russia war and the failure in getting a nuclear agreement.
• The targeting of the Israeli nuclear program is a strategic Israeli aim in light of the occupation's desire to keep his military superiority in the Middle East and force Iran to retreat and withdraw from the fronts that pose a threat to the Israeli occupation.
• Occupation will realize that any operation against Iran might trigger an Iranian reaction targeting Israeli people and interests along the world map.
• Iran explicitly affirms that it continues to develop its military programs as a national interest, and that any Israeli aggression is an attack on the State's sovereignty and requires a strong response.

Expected scenarios: According to the previous analyzing and reading of the situation, following are expected: 
1. This military maneuver and the similar ones are considered as a mere negotiating messages to pressure Iran to accept the draft of nuclear deal, and stop supporting the Russian war in Ukraine. This scenario is reinforced by the American unwillingness to ignite the Middle East currently and keep the focus on the conflict with Russia in Ukraine and China in Taiwan, and the theoretical inability of occupation to bear the consequences of any military action.
2. Such military maneuvers would end up in an ultimate result in a joint military operation between the United States and the occupation against Iran, without constituting a status quo in the protracted conflict between occupation and Iran. This scenario may be the result of right-wing orientations in both the United States and the coming occupation government, in addition to the US desire to neutralize Iran as an ally of Russia.

Generally, all scenarios remain present in the scene, with a relative preference for the first one because of the Israeli occupation's fear of the consequences of its operation in Iran under the Iranian expansion in the Middle East and its ability to influence occupation through the Iranian fronts in the region.