The Fourth Israeli Elections

The Israeli community is currently living a political crisis after they had to form a rotation government with Benjamin Netanyahu, leader of Likud, as the Prime Minister and Benny Gantz, leader of Kahol Lavan, as the Alternate Prime Minister who was supposed to take office in 2021. However, multiple issues have hindered the rotation; including the approval of 2021 budget. This led to the conduct of the fourth round of elections next March.

Insight of the Situation

Netanyahu added to his political record another victory which is erasing another high-profile political and military figure in ‘Israel’ (i.e. Benny Gantz). Netanyahu lured him into accepting the rotation government without the approval of his partners. This led to the disintegration of the party and retreat in the number of its seats (which dropped to only 5) in the Knesset. The power that he had formed before joining Netanyahu in the government fell apart.

Gideon Sa’ar, Netanyahu’s previous partner in the Likud, quit the Likud and ran against Netanyahu. Sa’ar’s popularity comes from his religious family.

According to the most recent poll by Srugim, Netanyahu is in the lead and Sa’ar and Bennet are behind. Ten other parties are out of the picture. The poll shows the number of seats as follows:

The Likud

32

Tikva Hadasha

17

Yesh Atid

14

Yamina

12

Joint Arab List

11

Shas

8

United Torah Judaism

8

Yisrael Beiteinu

7

Meretz

6

Blue and White

5

Religious Zionism

3

According to the poll, it is difficult for the opposing parties to win the necessary number of seats, which will lead to the formation of a coalition government. However, this will remain difficult for other candidates who cannot compete against the seats Netanyahu will win.

Possible Scenarios

  1. Netanyahu aligns with Shas, the United Torah Judaism, and Yamina (led by Naftali Bennett) which would enable Netanyahu to form an ‘Israeli’ government headed by him.
  2. Netanyahu aligns with Gideon Sa’ar, but it would not enable him to form the government, so he would align with the religious parties to get the necessary number of votes.
  3. The previously mentioned parties refuse to join Netanyahu’s coalition which would prevent him from forming the government.

The first scenario is most likely to happen because it makes sense to the current political Israeli events.

 

Source : PALM Strategic Initiatives Centre